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22 November 2019
  • 07:31

    GDP revisions put China on target to double economy, but data doubts remain

    China on Friday revised up its nominal 2018 gross domestic product (GDP) by 2.1% to 91.93 trillion yuan, keeping it on track to achieving its goal of doubling the size of its economy by 2020 from 2010.

    However, with the economy growing at its weakest pace in nearly three decades, the revisions could fuel scepticism about the credibility of Chinese data with some analysts suspecting authorities may be massaging the numbers to achieve Beijing's ambitious targets.

    In a statement, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said the change in the size of 2018 GDP will not significantly influence the calculation for the 2019 growth rate.

    Yet some analysts suggest the nominal nudge may actually not be so nominal after all.

    "Despite NBS stressing that the current round of revisions is the result of the census uncovering previously unrecorded activity, it's hard to ignore the fact that it will also help them meet official growth targets. In previous revisions real growth has almost always been revised upwards," said Julian Evans-Pritchard, Senior China Economist at Capital Economics, in a note.

    Indeed, growth of about 6.2% is seen needed for the whole of this year and the next to meet the Communist Party's longstanding goal of doubling GDP and incomes in the decade to 2020. Such a rate of expansion would be a stiff ask given the 6.0% GDP growth logged in the third quarter - the slowest pace since 1992 - and with many analysts tipping the pace to slip below 6% in 2020.

  • 07:15

    German GDP increased in line with forecasts in Q3

    According to the report from Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the German economy grew slightly in the third quarter of 2019. The gross domestic product rose 0.1% on the second quarter of 2019 after adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations. German economic performance in the second quarter of 2019 had been down 0.2%. In the first quarter of 2019, the German economy had grown by 0.5%.

    The quarter-on-quarter comparison (price, seasonally and calendar-adjusted) shows that positive contributions came from consumption, according to provisional calculations. Household final consumption expenditure increased by 0.4% on the second quarter of 2019 and government final consumption expenditure rose by 0.8%. Development of foreign trade made a positive contribution to economic growth, according to provisional calculations. Exports were up 1.0% (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted) on the second quarter of 2019, which had seen a sharp drop in goods exports. Imports in the third quarter of 2019 remained roughly at previous quarter's level (+0.1%).

    Compared with a year earlier, the price-adjusted GDP rose 1.0% in the third quarter of 2019. After calendar adjustment, GDP was up by 0.5% on the third quarter of 2018 because there was one working day more than a year earlier.

  • 07:01

    Germany: GDP (YoY), Quarter III 0.5% (forecast 0.5%)

  • 07:01

    Germany: GDP (QoQ), Quarter III 0.1% (forecast 0.1%)

  • 06:38

    Options levels on friday, November 22, 2019

    EUR/USD

    Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

    $1.1162 (5315)

    $1.1126 (3030)

    $1.1100 (2001)

    Price at time of writing this review: $1.1067

    Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

    $1.1049 (3724)

    $1.1024 (3245)

    $1.0989 (3310)


    Comments:

    - Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date December, 6 is 101374 contracts (according to data from November, 21) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1200 (5593);


    GBP/USD

    Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

    $1.2976 (2529)

    $1.2955 (1079)

    $1.2940 (736)

    Price at time of writing this review: $1.2925

    Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

    $1.2876 (227)

    $1.2858 (307)

    $1.2835 (1776)


    Comments:

    - Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 6 is 31707 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (5424);

    - Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 6 is 33363 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2200 (2280);

    - The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.05 versus 1.10 from the previous trading day according to data from November, 21

     

    * - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

    ** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

  • 05:57

    Japan: Manufacturing PMI, November 48.6

  • 02:30

    Commodities. Daily history for Thursday, November 21, 2019

    Raw materials Closed Change, %
    Brent 63.63 1.99
    WTI 58.33 2.3
    Silver 17.09 -0.23
    Gold 1465.064 -0.5
    Palladium 1760.58 -0.18
  • 00:30

    Stocks. Daily history for Thursday, November 21, 2019

    Index Change, points Closed Change, %
    NIKKEI 225 -109.99 23038.58 -0.48
    Hang Seng -422.73 26466.88 -1.57
    KOSPI -28.72 2096.6 -1.35
    ASX 200 -49.5 6672.9 -0.74
    FTSE 100 -23.94 7238.55 -0.33
    DAX -20.44 13137.7 -0.16
    Dow Jones -54.8 27766.29 -0.2
    S&P 500 -4.92 3103.54 -0.16
    NASDAQ Composite -20.52 8506.21 -0.24
  • 00:15

    Currencies. Daily history for Thursday, November 21, 2019

    Pare Closed Change, %
    AUDUSD 0.67865 -0.2
    EURJPY 120.097 -0.12
    EURUSD 1.10581 -0.12
    GBPJPY 140.162 -0.12
    GBPUSD 1.29058 -0.12
    NZDUSD 0.64005 -0.24
    USDCAD 1.32835 -0.14
    USDCHF 0.99305 0.22
    USDJPY 108.599 0
22 November 2019
Market Focus
  • China needs to ensure policies boost economy, lower real rates: Premier Li
  • Swiss industrial output growth fastest in more than a year in Q3
  • Emerging market 2020 outlook turns negative amid rising trade/ political risks - Moody's
  • OECD trims 2020 global growth forecast to 2.9% from 3.0% in September

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