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Market news

11 July 2019

IMF: Undershooting of Eurozone's inflation objective calls for prolonged monetary accommodation

  • Eurozone may face the long period of anemic growth and inflation
  • Projects GDP growth of 1.3% and inflation at 1.3% 2019
  • Sees rising risks for Eurozone economy, especially trade tensions, impact of Brexit, Italy's debt woes
  • EUROs real exchange rate as slightly undervalued, urges Germany, other trade surplus states to invest more
  • ECB's intention to maintain ample accommodation for longer is vital
  • ECB should short maturity of new TLTROs, offer less generous pricing terms than on TLTRO II to avoid banks increasing their sovereign exposure
  • Says possible tiered deposit rate would have very small impact on aggregate bank profitability and questionable impact on credit conditions
  • direct costs of negative rates are likely to outweigh by their positive indirect effects on aggregate demand and bank profitability
  • if further accommodation required, ECB should consider new asset purchase program anchored by P and possibly broaden to larger set of assets
  • ECB may have only limited room to cut interest rates
  • further credit easing measures could be considered, including new cheaper liquidity facilities for banks

Market Focus
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  • Swiss industrial output growth fastest in more than a year in Q3
  • Emerging market 2020 outlook turns negative amid rising trade/ political risks - Moody's
  • OECD trims 2020 global growth forecast to 2.9% from 3.0% in September

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