Quotes and rates for precious metals Gold vs US Dollar (XAUUSD)

• Gold price appreciates as traders exercise caution amid concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East.
• Jordan's Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi warned that Israeli retaliation against Iranian strikes could potentially escalate the conflict throughout the entire region.
• The correction in the US Dollar supports the demand for the yellow metal.

Gold price recovers its recent losses, trading around $2,370 per troy ounce during the Asian session on Thursday. The safe-haven yellow metal gains ground as traders exercise caution amidst heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

According to reports from Reuters, Jordan's Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi stated in an interview released by state media on Wednesday that Israeli retaliation against Iranian strikes could pose a significant risk of dragging the entire region into a devastating war.

Furthermore, Israel's Air Force announced on Wednesday that its fighter jets had targeted Hezbollah infrastructure north of Baalbek in eastern Lebanon. Concerns are rising that increased exchanges of fire between Israel and Hezbollah could lead to further escalation.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel asserted that Israel would make its own decisions regarding how to defend itself, as Western countries urged restraint in responding to a series of attacks from Iran.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) loses ground, primarily influenced by subdued US Treasury yields. This correction in the US Dollar is to make Gold less expensive to buy for investors using other currencies.

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester, speaking on Wednesday, acknowledged that inflation has surpassed expectations. She stated that the Fed requires further assurance before confirming the sustainability of 2% inflation.

Additionally, Fed Chair Jerome Powell commented on Tuesday that recent data indicates limited progress in inflation this year, suggesting an extended period before reaching the 2% target. This statement potentially signals a hawkish stance on upcoming monetary decisions from the Fed. Higher interest rates could diminish the demand for non-yielding assets like Gold.

• Gold price hovers close to record highs amid market caution ahead of Israel's response to Iran's assault.
• Israel's third meeting of the war cabinet, initially scheduled for Tuesday, was postponed until Wednesday.
• Gold demand may encounter hurdles as Fed Chair Powell emphasized that reaching the 2% inflation target will require more time than previously expected.

Gold price holds ground near $2,380 per troy ounce on Wednesday, hovering close to record highs as traders exercise caution ahead of Israel's response to Iran's air strike on Saturday. A Reuters report indicated that a third meeting of Israel's war cabinet, initially scheduled for Tuesday to decide on a reaction to Iran's unprecedented direct attack, was postponed until Wednesday.

Furthermore, sources cited by The Jerusalem Post disclosed that Israel has purportedly finalized plans for a counterstrike against Iran. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan announced late on Tuesday that new sanctions targeting Iran, alongside sanctions against entities supporting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iran's Defense Ministry, will be enforced in the coming days.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell, speaking at the Wilson Center in Washington on Tuesday, tempered expectations for rate cuts. Powell noted that the US economy has shown significant strength and recent data indicates a lack of substantial progress on inflation this year. He emphasized that achieving the 2% inflation target will take "longer than expected." The prospect of higher interest rates typically reduces the appeal of non-yielding assets such as Gold.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of interest rates remaining unchanged in the June meeting has risen to 84.8% from Monday’s 78.7%. Investors will closely monitor speeches from Federal Reserve officials this week, as well as Thursday's US Initial Jobless Claims, for further insight into the direction of monetary policy.

• Gold price resumes uptrend on Middle East escalation after Iran attacked Israel over the weekend.
• US Dollar stays uninspired by geopolitical tensions, as risk sentiment remains in a sweeter spot.
• Gold price likely to stay supported ahead of top-tier US Retail Sales data.

Gold price is back in the green above $2,350 early Monday, having witnessed the long-due correction from record highs of $$2,432 on Friday.

Gold price opens higher, then retraces

Gold price saw a positive start to the week in early dealings, mainly lifted by the escalation in the conflict between Iran and Israel over the weekend. Investors scurried for safety in the traditional safe haven, as traders geared up for a new week following Iran’s drones attack on Israel late Saturday.

Gold price stays underpinned by markets’ fears that Iran’s unprecedented weekend strike on Israel could fuel rounds of retaliation. However, the UK, France and Egypt condemned Iran's action while Saudi Arabia called for restraint, offering some comfort to markets, as risk sentiment remains in a sweeter spot in early Asia.

The S&P 500 futures gain 0.30% on the day, reflecting the market optimism, which is capping the further upside in Gold price.

Looking ahead, if the Middle East conflict intensify, Gold price is likely to see an extension of the rebound toward $2,400. But a resurgent demand for the US Dollar on increased safe-haven flows and hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations could act as a headwind to the Gold price upswing.

The focus will also be on the high-impact US Retail Sales data due later on Monday, with the monthly headline figure to increase by 0.3% in March, slower than February’s 0.6% rise.

• Gold Price trades in positive territory around $2,355 in Wednesday’s early European session. 
• The expectation of rate cuts from Fed, rising Middle East tensions and central bank purchases might lift the gold price. 
• Gold traders await the US CPI inflation data for March and the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday. 

Gold Price (XAU/USD) extends its upside near $2,355 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. The uptick of yellow metal is bolstered by the expectation of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year, central bank purchases, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. 

On Wednesday, Israeli foreign minister Israel Kat warned that Israel will retaliate if Iran attacks from its territory. Earlier, Iran's supreme leader said Israel "must be punished" for an apparent attack on an Iranian consulate building in Syria last week, which killed two of its senior military commanders, per Sky News. The escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might boost safe-haven assets like gold. 

Furthermore, the gold purchase from major central banks lifts the yellow metal to nearly an all-time high. China added 160,000 troy ounces of gold to its reserves in March, the 17th consecutive month. Turkey, India, Kazakhstan, and some eastern European countries also buying gold this year, along with China.

Gold traders will closely monitor the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March and the FOMC Minutes, due on Wednesday. These events could provide some insights about the inflation trajectory and the path of the Fed’s monetary policy. The firmer inflation reading might dampen expectations for Fed rate cuts in June and cap the gold’s upside. On the other hand, the softer inflation data could fuel speculation for rate reductions and provide some support to XAU/USD. 

Gold price witnessed a sudden $27 upswing and stormed through the $2,350 barrier to refresh an all-time high at $2,354 in Asian trading on Monday. Despite easing geopolitical tensions between Israel and Hamas and reducing bets of a June US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut, Gold price extends its record-setting rally primarily on reports of potential robust Gold purchases by global central banks.

A Chinese official reported on Sunday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) purchased Gold for its reserves for the 17th straight month in March.

more to come ...

• Gold price retreats from the new record high of $2,330 marked on Friday.
• The price of Gold faces challenges due to lowered chances of Fed rate cuts in June.
• US Nonfarm Payrolls added 303K new jobs in March, exceeding the expected 200K.

Gold price drops to near $2,310 per troy ounce during the Asian session on Monday after touching a new record high on Friday. The price of precious metal faces challenges primarily due to higher US Treasury yields, which weakens the non-yielding assets.

The recent gains in the US Dollar exert downward pressure on the price of Gold as it becomes more expensive for investors holding other currencies to purchase Gold, leading to a decrease in demand for the precious metal.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades higher around 104.40, with the 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds standing at 4.77% and 4.42%, by the press time. The stronger Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report reinforces the bullish outlook for the Greenback. The likelihood of a rate cut in June from the Federal Reserve (Fed) has been depreciated to 46.1%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) reported a significant increase of 303,000 jobs in March, surpassing expectations of 200,000. However, the previous growth of 275,000 was revised downward to 200,000.

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie K. Logan emphasized on Friday that, given the upside risks to inflation, she believes it is premature to consider cutting interest rates. She stressed the necessity of resolving more uncertainty regarding the economic trajectory before making such decisions. Logan also highlighted the importance for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to remain ready to respond appropriately if inflationary pressures cease to abate.

• Gold price loses traction near $2,285 in Friday’s early Asian session. 
• The US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended March 30 went up to a two-month high. 
• The escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions might lift the safe-haven flows, benefiting gold price. 
• The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings will be the highlights on Friday.

Gold Price (XAU/USD) edges lower to $2,285 during the early Asian session on Friday after reaching another fresh record high above $2,300 in the previous session. The ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the expectation of monetary policy easing from the Federal Reserve (Fed) might lift the yellow metal. Market players await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for March on Friday for fresh impetus, which is expected to see 200K jobs added in March. 

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the value of the USD against a weighted basket of currencies used by US trade partners, recovers to 104.20, bouncing off two-week lows of 103.90. The US Treasury bond yields edge lower, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.30%. 

On Thursday, the US Initial Jobless Claims last week went up to the highest level since January, according to the Labor Department. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits climbed to 221K for the week ended March 30 compared to the previous week of 212K, worse than the estimation of 214K. Meanwhile, Continuing Claims dropped to 1.791M in the week ending March 23. 

Nonetheless, the Guardian reported late Thursday that Israel has postponed leave for combat troops and increased its air defense command to prepare for any Iranian missile or drone attacks after the recent bombing in Syria killed two Iranian military commanders. The rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might boost traditional safe-haven asset like gold in the near term. 

Moving on, the US employment data for March, including Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings will be in the spotlight on Friday. The stronger outcome might provide some support to the Greenback and cap the upside of USD-denominated gold. 

Gold remains firm after making a marginal new high for the move up earlier. Economists at Scotiabank analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.

Gold strength and a firm USD look a little odd; something may have to give

Gold (XAU/USD) has risen above $2,200. Economists at ANZ Bank analyze the yellow metal’s outlook. 

The timing and pace of the easing cycle will be crucial

Investment demand for Gold has not been moving in tandem with prices for more than a year. Strategic investment inflows will be crucial for the Gold price, economists at ANZ Bank say.

A less crowded investment in Gold presents significant upside potential

The next step for the Fed is still a cut and a less restrictive rates environment. This should be favourable for Gold, economists at OCBC Bank say.

Risk of pullback in the near term

• Gold price gains momentum for the fifth consecutive day around $2,250 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• The expectation of easing monetary policy from major central banks, and the Middle East geopolitical tension might boost the gold price. 
• Investors will monitor China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI and US ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday. 

Gold Price (XAU/USD) climbs to all-time highs of nearly $2,250 per troy ounce during the early Asian session on Monday. The yellow metal attracts some buyers amid the expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) pivot in the second half of 2024, the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and the hope for China's economic recovery. 

The expectation of easing monetary policy from major central banks might boost gold prices. Financial markets have priced in 68.5% odds of a quarter-point rate cut from The US Fed by June, according to the CME Fedwatch Tool. The Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Friday that the recent US inflation data was "along the lines of what we would like to see," and it kept the Fed's baseline for interest rate cuts this year intact. It’s worth noting that the lower interest rates might lift the gold price as gold becomes a better investment, considering it is a non-interest-bearing asset.

On Friday, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) rose 2.5% YoY in February, in line with expectations. The monthly figure increased by 0.4% MoM in the same month, slightly below the market consensus. Additionally, the Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, climbed 2.8% YoY and 0.3% MoM, aligning with market expectations. 

Furthermore, Hezbollah said on Sunday that it carried out seven attacks on Israeli troops and said one of its strikes targeted and destroyed newly developed spy equipment at al-Jardah near the Lebanese border. The rising tension in the Middle East might boost the safe-haven flows and benefit the gold price. 

Apart from this, the upbeat Chinese Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for March provides some support to the gold price. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Sunday that Chinese Manufacturing PMI improved to 50.8 in March from the previous reading of 49.1, while Non-Manufacturing PMI climbed to 53.0 in March versus 51.4 in February.

Moving on, traders will focus on China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI for March, due on Monday. Also, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. If the US PMI report shows a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could boost the US Dollar (USD) and cap the upside of the gold price in the near term. 

• Gold price appreciates on market bias towards rate cuts possibility by major central banks in 2024.
• Investors expect three rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in the coming months.
• Investors await the US PCE report to gain additional insight into the Fed’s interest rates trajectory.

Gold price appreciates to all-time highs near $2,230 per troy ounce, attempting to continue its winning streak for the fifth successive session on Friday. However, trading volumes are light as market participants are likely observing Good Friday. The glitters of Gold are attracting buyers as market sentiment leans toward major central banks initiating an interest rate-cut cycle this year.

Investors are gaining confidence in Gold as they anticipate three rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in the coming months. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, leaning towards a dovish stance, expects three cuts but emphasizes the need for more evidence of inflation subsiding before implementing any action.

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy suggested that achieving the ECB's inflation goal of 2% is feasible, but he cautioned against escalating downside risks if the ECB opts against rate cuts. ECB executive board member Fabio Panetta remarked on Thursday that "the conditions to begin easing monetary policy are emerging."

In Europe, the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly cut rates at its March meeting, sparking speculation that other major central banks might take similar actions. Meanwhile, although the Bank of Japan ceased its negative rate policy, it is anticipated to maintain an accommodative stance for the foreseeable future.

The United Nations Security Council passed a resolution urging a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, along with the release of hostages. However, the conflict in the Gaza Strip continues unabated, with Palestinian militants yet to release any captives. The Palestinian Red Crescent reported that Israeli forces besieged two additional Gaza hospitals on Sunday, trapping medical personnel amidst intense gunfire. The escalation of geopolitical tensions has heightened demand for safe-haven assets like Gold.

• Gold price hovers around $2,230, nearly record highs in Friday’s Asian session. 
• The prospect of interest rate cuts from the US Fed and the ongoing geopolitical tensions lift the yellow metal.
• The hawkish Fed comments and robust US economy data might cap the gold’s upside. 
• Investors will closely monitor the US February PCE data, due on Friday.  

Gold price (XAU/USD) flirts with record highs around $2,230 during the Asian session on Friday. The uptick of yellow metal is bolstered by the safe-haven flows amidst growing economic concerns and the prospect of interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). However, the easing expectations for the Fed rate cuts might lift the US Dollar (USD) and cap the upside of USD-denominated gold. 

Gold gains momentum as investors anticipate three rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year. The Fed held its benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a range between 5.25%-5.50% for the fifth consecutive time last week. Furthermore, the central bank still expects three quarter-percentage point cuts by the end of the year. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in nearly 63% odds that the Fed will cut interest rates in June. It’s worth noting that lower interest rates generally weaken the USD, making gold cheaper to investors holding other currencies.

Furthermore, the ongoing geopolitical risk in the Middle East might boost traditional safe-haven assets like gold. The Palestinian Red Crescent said that Israeli forces besieged two more Gaza hospitals on Sunday, pinning down medical teams under heavy gunfire.

On the other hand, a combination of hawkish Fed comments and robust US economy data might weigh on the gold price. Many Fed officials remain cautious about easing too soon. On Wednesday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that there was “no rush” to Fed bank President Raphael Bostic stated that he now sees just one quarter-point rate cut this year, down from the two cuts that he had previously estimated. 

Most markets are closed for Good Friday, but the US February Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data will take center stage on Friday. The Core PCE, Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is projected to show an increase of 0.3% in February.

Gold prices have been scaling new highs in March. Economists at ANZ Bank analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.

A retracement looks likely in the short term

See – Gold Price Forecast: Push back in rate cut expectations from March to June may cap XAU/USD rally – ANZ

Gold is holding up well near the $2,200 mark. Economists at Commerzbank analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.

The market seems to be underestimating the risk that rate cuts will come later and be less substantial

Gold extended recent gains amid expectations of lower inflation. Economists at ANZ Bank analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.

Safe haven demand remains strong

See: Gold Price Forecast: Push back in rate cut expectations from March to June may cap XAU/USD rally – ANZ

The timing and pace of the Fed’s rate cuts are long-term drivers for Gold, strategists at ANZ Bank say.

The FOMC needs more confidence that inflation is returning to 2% before considering cuts

The price of Gold has reached a new record high following the Fed's meeting perceived as dovish. Economists at Scotiabank analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.

Gold rise remains a mystery